HAMBURG: Chicago wheat fell on Monday on talks this week that could enable stalled Russian and Ukrainian Black Sea exports to resume. Soybean and corn prices were firm ahead of Tuesday’s world agricultural supply and demand estimates from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).
The Chicago Board of Trade’s most active wheat contract fell 0.5 percent to USD5.88-1/4 a bushel at 1210 GMT, remaining close to roughly nine-month lows hit on Friday.
Soybeans rose 0.1 percent to USD11.95-1/4 a bushel while corn gained 0.2 percent to USD4.42-3/4 a bushel. Russian and Ukrainian wheat shipments through Azov-Black Sea ports have been at a virtual standstill since mid-August after attacks on vessels and terminals. Talks involving Russia, Ukraine and the US are due to take place in Abu Dhabi over November 10 and 11 to discuss ending the war in Ukraine, postwar security pacts and de-escalation.
“Wheat market focus is very strongly on the Black Sea peace talks in Abu Dhabi this week, especially whether some form of deal will be reached enabling Russia and Ukraine to restart their ship-borne Black Sea exports,” said Matt Ammermann, commodity risk manager at StoneX. “There is optimism in the market that something could be agreed in Abu Dhabi even though a wider peace deal appears unlikely.” Ammermann added that Russian wheat exports are running at about half their normal volume despite attempts to find alternative export routes, so any deal could boost supplies into the global market. Analysts polled by Reuters expect the USDA to raise its US soybean harvest forecast but cut its estimate for the US corn crop.
“Corn and soybeans are seeing support today in positioning ahead of the USDA crop estimates,” Ammermann said. “I think the market focus will be strongly on the USDA estimates of yields in the US corn and soybean harvests, now in their final stages.”
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