MOSCOW: Russian wheat export prices fell last week in line with global markets, and analysts are revising their estimates for shipments from Russia in September upwards, although they remain at multi-year lows.
According to consultancy IKAR, export prices for wheat with a 12.5percent protein content shipped from the Russian ports of Vysotsk and Ust-Luga were at USD268 per metric ton for delivery in November FOB by the end of last week, down USD6 from the previous week.
Most shipments are now being redirected to those two terminals, as southern Russian ports remain closed. Shipments via ports in the Azov-Black Sea basin came to a standstill from mid-August due to attacks on vessels and damage to terminals.
“The market continues to ignore the Black Sea supply shock, but this cannot last indefinitely,” Andrey Sizov, head of the SovEcon consultancy, said.
IKAR estimated that Russia had been able to export more than 2.0 million tons of wheat in September.
SovEcon has raised its forecast for wheat exports in September to 2.1 million tons from 1.8 million tons a week earlier.
Rusagrotrans has raised its forecast to 2.2 million tons from more than 1.7 million tons, driven by an increase in export volumes to a number of destinations. It said around 1.1 million tons of wheat were exported in the first half of the month.
However SovEcon said that, for the first three months of the 2026/27 season that began on July 1, wheat exports are estimated at 5.4 million tons, 53percent lower than a year earlier and 58percent below the five-year average of 12.9 million tons.
This may turn out to be the lowest quarterly figure since the 2010/11 season.
According to the Russian Ministry of Agriculture, as of September 18, 120 million tons of grain have been harvested, including more than 90 million tons of wheat, with yields higher than in the previous year.
Of more than 19 million hectares of winter crops, as of September 18 sowing had been completed on almost 6 million hectares.
Comments