KARACHI: Pakistan is likely to experience above-average temperatures and below-normal rainfall in September, with southern Sindh expected to record the largest rainfall deficit, the Met Office said in its monthly outlook. It also warned of possible dengue outbreaks in flood-affected, poorly drained and low-lying urban areas.
The Pakistan Meteorological Department’s outlook, based on the ensemble mean of 10 selected global seasonal prediction models, forecasts deficient rainfall across most of the country.
The largest negative rainfall anomalies are expected over central and southern Pakistan, particularly southern Sindh. Eastern areas are likely to remain drier, while western regions, including Balochistan and southern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, may receive near-average rainfall.
Northwestern areas, particularly Gilgit-Baltistan and parts of northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, are more likely to receive higher than normal rainfall, creating a marked north-south contrast.
The Met Office said the positive phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions were likely to persist through September.
While the two climate factors have compensating effects on rainfall, the overall outlook favours a drier month.
Temperatures are expected to remain higher nationwide, with the largest departures forecast over eastern Gilgit-Baltistan and western Balochistan.
The highest likelihood of elevated temperatures is expected over central Punjab, adjoining parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and western Balochistan.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2026
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