Keti Bunder: a port of opportunity

China Harbour Engineering Company has put up a proposal for a new deep-water port at Keti Bunder, which is a historic port town on the Indus River delta along the Arabian Sea, located in the Thatta district of Sindh.

The delegates of China Harbour last week presented the proposal to President Asif Ali Zardari in a meeting attended by the Sindh government and Chief Minister Murad Ali Shah. The proposed Phase-I features a preliminary engineering cost of USD 522 million.

Keti Bunder could present Pakistan with an opportunity to establish a new maritime-industrial corridor in southern Sindh and significantly scale up the economic and social prosperity of the province.

However, the central question is the economic, environmental and sociological viability of the new port.

Its economic justification must extend beyond the construction of another deep-water port, while its environmental implications must be assessed in the context of the fragile Indus Delta ecosystem.

In the background also hangs a considerable irony in reviving Keti Bunder. Historically, it was an important maritime centre of Sindh and, during the nineteenth century, ranked among the region’s significant ports. Its eventual decline was closely associated with changes in the Indus River system, navigation difficulties and the emergence of Karachi.

This history demonstrates that ports are ultimately shaped by geography and economics; infrastructure cannot permanently overcome an unsuitable or changing economic environment.

Today, Pakistan already possesses three significant maritime gateways. Karachi Port is the country’s established commercial gateway and remains deeply integrated with the country’s largest urban and industrial economy. Port Qasim has developed a strong industrial and energy-oriented model, serving steel, petroleum, LNG, coal and other bulk cargoes. Gwadar has a fundamentally different strategic rationale, linked to CPEC and Pakistan’s long-term ambition to connect China and Central Asia with the Arabian Sea.

Where, then, does Keti Bunder fit?

Its strongest economic argument would be not to compete with Karachi and Port Qasim for existing cargo, but to generate new cargo through a new industrial and logistics corridor in southern Sindh. Its location could potentially support coastal industries, fisheries, agro-processing, warehousing, logistics and export-oriented manufacturing. If integrated with efficient road and, eventually, rail connectivity, Keti Bunder could open an economically underdeveloped part of Sindh to investment.

However, this proposition requires a robust quantitative analysis.

The preliminary USD 522 million engineering estimate should not be mistaken for the project’s total economic cost. Breakwaters, navigation channels, dredging, reclamation, roads, utilities, storage facilities, customs infrastructure and industrial estates could substantially increase the overall investment requirement. The government must therefore take into account the full lifecycle cost, including recurring dredging and maintenance.

The critical question would be: Will Keti Bunder generate additional national economic activity, or merely redistribute cargo from two existing ports?

There is, however, an even greater concern: the ecosystem.

Keti Bunder is situated within the Indus Delta, one of Pakistan’s most fragile ecological zones. Its mangroves protect the coastline, support fisheries and provide a natural defence against storms, coastal erosion and flooding. Decades of reduced freshwater flows into the delta have already placed enormous pressure on this ecosystem.

A major port would involve dredging, reclamation, vessel traffic, industrial development and potentially increased pollution. These interventions could alter tidal flows, affect mangrove habitats and further undermine fisheries. The economic cost of ecological damage is rarely reflected in a port’s headline construction cost, but it is ultimately borne by society.

This is why Keti Bunder cannot be evaluated as an engineering project alone. It must be assessed as an integrated economic and ecological system.

A comprehensive, independent feasibility study should therefore precede any major commitment. It should quantify projected cargo volumes, shipping demand, competing capacity at Karachi and Port Qasim, connectivity costs, industrial demand, dredging requirements and the project’s economic rate of return.

Equally importantly, a rigorous environmental impact assessment should establish the delta’s carrying capacity and define non-negotiable limits on dredging, reclamation and industrial activity.

There is also a broader strategic consideration. Pakistan’s dependence on Karachi and Port Qasim creates concentration risk. A third functioning commercial gateway could provide valuable redundancy during natural disasters, security disruptions or periods of congestion. However, strategic redundancy does not justify economically unsustainable infrastructure.

The appropriate approach, therefore, is neither to reject Keti Bunder because of its environmental sensitivity nor to embrace it simply because Chinese expertise and financing are available.

Keti Bunder should proceed only if it can demonstrate three things simultaneously: new economic value, strategic utility and ecological sustainability.

If Keti Bunder can become the maritime anchor of a new industrial and logistics corridor in southern Sindh while preserving the Indus Delta, it could prove to be a valuable national investment. If it merely becomes another harbour competing for existing cargo while placing a fragile ecosystem under further pressure, history may once again repeat itself.

The real project, therefore, is not the port. It is the economic ecosystem around it—and the ecological ecosystem beneath it.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2026