Russia’s Aug wheat exports seen falling to lowest level since 2016/17

MOSCOW: Russian wheat exports in August could fall to their lowest in nearly a decade, agricultural analysts said on Tuesday, as the world’s top wheat exporter contends with low prices and security risks on vital Black Sea shipping routes.

Russia and Ukraine have increasingly targeted ships and ports during their 4-1/2-year war, but both countries are harvesting large crops that could add to already ample global supplies.

The Sovecon agriculture consultancy said wheat exports could fall to an estimated 3-3.4 million metric tons versus 4.5 million tons a year ago, the lowest level since the 2016/17 season.

“Low export rates are increasing pressure on the domestic market,” Sovecon head Andrey Sizov said. Russia’s IKAR consultancy on Tuesday lowered its forecast for the country’s wheat export potential in the current 2026/27 marketing season to 44.5 million tons from a previous expectation of 45 million tons.

Russia’s total grain export potential for the season is 60 million tons, it said. Ukraine has cut its own grain export forecast for the 2026/27 July-June season to 38–40 million tons, as much as 12percent below a previous projection due to attacks on its southern Odesa port hub, its agriculture minister told Reuters on Monday.

Over the past week, Turkey has issued warnings to Moscow and Kyiv over attacks in the Black Sea, urging the warring sides to take measures to ensure navigational safety in the area. Higher freight costs are also weighing on exports, rising around USD10 per ton for major destinations last week, Sovecon’s Sizov said in his weekly wheat report on Monday.

Since July 10, attacks have disrupted shipping in the Sea of Azov, whose ports in Russia and Russian-held parts of Ukraine connect to the Black Sea via the Kerch Strait. (Reporting by Reuters; Writing by Anastasia.