OPEC+ set for September quota increase followed by pause, sources say

LONDON: OPEC+ plans to approve a production ​quota increase on Sunday of around 188,000 barrels per ‌day from September after which it will pause further output increases, sources said, as the group completes the unwinding of voluntary cuts.

The ​seven core members of OPEC+ — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, ​Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman — have been increasing monthly production ⁠quotas for most of this year. Those increases have ​remained largely on paper, however, as the Iran and Ukraine ​wars disrupted exports from the Gulf, Russia and Kazakhstan.

After September, the group will likely pause output increases for the rest of the year, one ​OPEC+ delegate and one OPEC+ source said as the ​alliance faces potentially difficult talks over new production quotas.

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The September increase would ‌complete ⁠a phased rollback of a 1.65 million bpd supply cut originally agreed in 2023, when the group still included the United Arab Emirates, which left OPEC in May.

OPEC+ is carrying ​out a review ​of members’ oil ⁠production capacity to be used for 2027 output baselines, from which quotas are set.

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The pause after ​September would leave in place roughly 2 ​million barrels ⁠per day of OPEC+ cuts dating back to 2022 until the group decides how to distribute additional supply among members.

Some ⁠members of ​the group, including Iraq, are pushing for ​higher individual quotas to reflect higher capacity.