FBR links FY27 revenue outlook to tax-economy relationships

ISLAMABAD: The Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) has declared that the accuracy of tax projections for 2026-27 would depend on the stability of historical tax-economic relationships and the reliability of macroeconomic forecasts during new fiscal year.

On the issue of tax estimates for 2026-27, the FBR’s report said that periodic updating of coefficients and incorporation of scenario analysis can further strengthen the 12 predictive performance of the model and safeguard against structural breaks or unexpected economic disruptions.

The calculated autonomous growth rates were then applied to the projected base year collections for FY2025–26 to estimate incremental revenue for FY2026–27. The additional revenue derived from this process was added to the base year collections to arrive at the final projections. These figures therefore represent baseline revenue expectations, excluding the impact of any new taxation measures, rate adjustments, or policy reforms that may be introduced during the FY2026–27 budget process, FBR added.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2026