ISMO agrees to include 269MW hybrid Dhabeji as optimised project

ISLAMABAD: Independent System and Market Operator (ISMO) has agreed to include 269 MW hybrid Dhabeji of JCM Canada as an optimised project, following the re-simulation of IGCEP-2025 based on the revised project data.

This development has reportedly materialised after the meetings of Canadian High Commissioner to Pakistan, Tarik Ali Khan, along with the representative of the Canadian Company.

According to the addendum –II submitted by ISMO to Nepra, during the development of IGCEP 2025, K-Electric shared data for a 220 MW AC Hybrid power plant at Dhabeji, which was considered a candidate project. This plant did not get optimised (selected) during the FY 2025-35 study horizon. A member of the Task Force on Energy subsequently shared revised data for the same plant, now identified as JCM 269 MW Hybrid Dhabeji, for consideration in IGCEP 2025 and IGCEP 2026, with reference to a letter from the Task Force. This addendum documents the re-simulation carried out using the revised data.

The addendum-II evaluates the optimisation status of the JCM 269 MW Hybrid Dhabeji project within IGCEP 2025-35, incorporating updated plant-specific data while holding all other model assumptions, including the set of committed power plants, constant.

The documents sent to the Regulator further state that the revised data shared by the Task Force on Energy reflects updated technical and commercial parameters for the plant, including an increase in dependable capacity from 220 MW to 269 MW, a one-year shift in earliest availability to 2027, and revisions to WACC, exchange rate, CAPEX, fixed O&M, and transmission cost. Based on the old data shared by K-Electric and the revised data shared by the Task Force on Energy, the following scenarios were carried out for comparison: (i) IGCEP 2025 with old cost data (already submitted to NEPRA on 8th August 2025); and (ii) IGCEP 2025 with revised hybrid cost data shared by the Task Force on Energy.

A further sensitivity, incorporating the revised hybrid cost data together with the latest demand on base year 2024-25, was also examined by the Task Force and is reported to yield a consistent outcome, with the plant getting optimised in FY 2027; the corresponding annual capacity addition table is not reproduced in this addendum and can be provided separately if required.

Re-simulation of IGCEP 2025 using the revised hybrid data, with all committed power plants held constant, shows the following key results: (i) JCM 269 MW Hybrid Dhabeji Project is selected and optimised in FY 2027 ;(ii) optimised candidate wind is reduced by 465 MW in the NGC system and 78 MW in the K-Electric system, an overall reduction of 543 MW; and (iii) the overall capacity addition for the FY 2025-35 horizon reduces by 274 MW, from 16,680 MW to 16,406 MW.

ISMO is of the view that based on the re-simulation of IGCEP 2025 using the revised data shared by the Task Force on Energy, the JCM 269 MW Hybrid Dhabeji project gets optimised and is selected in FY 2027. Because of this selection, the following changes are required to be reflected in the IGCEP 2025- 35, either through this addendum or in the subsequent IGCEP 2026 cycle: (i) inclusion of JCM 269 MW Hybrid Dhabeji project as a selected (optimised) candidate plant, commissioning in FY 2027 ;(ii) reduction in optimised candidate wind capacity of 465 MW in the NGC system and 78 MW in the K-Electric system; and (iii) corresponding reduction in the overall capacity addition requirement for the horizon FY 2025-35 by 274 MW. All other committed power plants and model assumptions remain unchanged from IGCEP 2025 as submitted to NEPRA.

The procurement of the JCM 269 MW Hybrid Dhabeji Project shall be carried out strictly on the same financial and technical parameters used in this re-simulation, namely 269 MW dependable capacity, FY 2027 earliest availability, 37 percent plant factor, 7.36 percent WACC, and the CAPEX, O&M, IDC, insurance, and transmission cost values set out in the documents. Any deviation from these parameters at the procurement or PPA stage should be referred back for re-evaluation.

This addendum has been approved by the ISMO Board and submitted to NEPRA as an addendum to IGCEP 2025-35, already submitted on August 8, 2025. The revised treatment of JCM 269 MW Hybrid Dhabeji project as a candidate project shall be carried forward and incorporated consistently in the IGCEP 2026 cycle, in line with the update already communicated to Power Division through ISMO letter of June 24, 2026.

The reduction in candidate wind quantum of 543 MW (465 MW NGC and 78 MW K-Electric) resulting from the selection of the JCM 269 MW Hybrid Dhabeji Project shall be reflected in the forward procurement pipeline planning for wind candidates in both systems.

The needs assessment conducted under the revised IGCEP 2025–2035 identified a significant change concerning power exports from National Grid to K-Electric. Subsequently, the export to K-Electric is envisaged to reach 3,456 MW by 2035, compared to the previously proposed 2,050 MW.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2026