KYIV: A rise in Russian attacks on Ukrainian seaports and vessels could cut monthly grain shipments by as much as a third and have left terminal operators facing mounting losses they say they cannot cover alone, officials and industry executives said.
Ukraine, one of the world’s major grain exporters, relies heavily on its Black Sea ports, which handle more than 90percent of its exports. Three exporters and industry officials told Reuters that intensified missile and drone attacks on ports, ships, railways and energy infrastructure are threatening the flow of cargoes. Russia for a time had blocked Ukraine’s key seaports following its full-scale invasion in February 2022, forcing Ukraine to shift its exports to the Danube ports in the 2022/23 season. But, following a deal to allow grain through the Black Sea, ports in the Odesa region have recently been handling about 6 million tons of cargo a month.
“Potentially, export volumes from Odesa ports could fall to 4 million metric tons a month because of the attacks,” said Taras Vysotskyi, Ukraine’s deputy economy minister. “About 1 million tons could be redirected to Danube terminals, but not more than that — logistics there are expensive.”
Denys Marchuk, deputy head of Ukraine’s largest farming union UAC, said he agreed with the assessment of the decline and that strikes on ports were now among the biggest constraints for the sector. A 30percent fall in key exporting months would pose a significant challenge for exporters as Ukraine enters the new season with large carryover stocks, which will put downward pressure on domestic prices, reducing farmers’ incomes. Export disruptions could also have broad consequences for Ukraine’s wartime economy, where agricultural exports are a key source of foreign currency revenue. It could also impact global markets. Ukraine in recent seasons has accounted for about 6percent of global wheat exports and about 11percent of global corn exports. STRIKES ON TERMINALS Russia has repeatedly attacked Ukrainian ports and energy infrastructure during the war. Kyiv says the attacks are aimed at undermining Ukraine’s economy and its ability to export food to global markets. The pressure on logistics is acute for private terminal operators, who have suffered repeated damage since Russia’s invasion.
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