India's Reliance seen posting quarterly profit fall on crude price surge

Billionaire Mukesh Ambani-led Reliance Industries is set to report a decline in March-quarter profit on Friday, as the Middle East war-driven spike in crude prices weighed on its mainstay oil-to-chemicals business, analysts said.

The company’s consolidated net profit is expected to fall 3.7% year-over-year in the fourth quarter, while revenue is seen rising 8.1%, according to the average estimate of six brokerages, as calculated by Reuters.

Reliance Industries, which operates the world’s largest refining complex in western India and derives nearly half its revenue from the segment, faces pressure as Brent crude has surged more than 40% since late February amid the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran and disruptions to flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

“Refiner (including Reliance) earnings should in theory benefit from higher cracks, but high crude premiums and operating costs could be a material, uncertain drag,” analysts at JP Morgan said.

Jefferies said the operating profit in the oil-to-chemicals segment is likely to be hit by the scarcity premium on crude, higher freight costs and increased production of loss-making liquefied petroleum gas.

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The company’s shares have fallen about 8% since it reported its third-quarter earnings on January 16, underperforming the benchmark Nifty 50, which is down 5.8% over the same period.

Retail to slow while telecom holds firm

Brokerages expect slower growth in the Indian oil-to-telecom conglomerate’s retail segment amid intensifying competition, while its telecom business likely performed better on continued subscriber growth.

Jefferies expects Reliance’s retail business to have grown at 8% in the March quarter, which would mark a second consecutive quarter of sub-10% growth.

Analysts expect the telecom business to sustain strong subscriber additions and upgrades to higher-priced plans.

Centrum forecasts Reliance Jio to have added 5 million users to reach 520 million in the March quarter, while average revenue per user likely firmed marginally from the previous quarter to 216 rupees.

With the earnings announcement, investors will also watch for Reliance Jio Platforms’ IPO cues, after Reuters reported the company held talks with 13 marquee foreign investors to each sell 8% of their stake in a planned Mumbai listing.