Indian rupee pinned to lifetime low on stubbornly high oil, heavy equity outflows

MUMBAI: The Indian rupee is set to hold near its all-time low on Monday, pressured by concerns that the ​intensifying Iran conflict could keep crude prices higher for longer and ‌sustain importer dollar demand.

The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated the rupee will open in the 92.42–92.48 range against the US dollar, compared with 92.4550 on Friday, when ​the currency touched a lifetime low of 92.4750.

Brent crude ​hit a high of $106.10 on the day, extending a rally that has pushed prices ⁠nearly 40% higher since the Iran war began on February ​28.

There are few signs of the conflict cooling.

US President Donald Trump said on ​Sunday that his administration is in talks with seven countries about helping secure the Strait of Hormuz, urging them to step up protection for ships transitioning the major oil ​artery, which Tehran has largely blocked to tanker traffic.

Meanwhile, Iran on ​Saturday warned it would target any facility in the region with U.S. ties, after ‌Washington bombed ⁠what it said was Tehran’s main energy hub.

“The risk now is that $100-plus oil becomes the new normal for a while,” a currency trader at a bank said.

“If that happens, the rupee will likely need to ​weaken further to ​absorb the higher ⁠external imbalance.”

Risk sentiment remained fragile amid oil worries persisting. Asian equities extended last week’s losses, while the ​safe-haven dollar held above the 100 mark.

Indian equities have ​come under ⁠intense pressure, amplifying strains already been building before the conflict.

The Nifty 50 plunged 5.3% last week and is down roughly 8% so far this month.

The equity slump has coincided ⁠with ​persistent foreign outflows. Overseas investors have pulled $5.7 ​billion from Indian equities this month through Thursday, with preliminary data suggesting the pace of ​selling accelerated on Friday, with outflows exceeding $1 billion.