SBP revises up projection for workers’ remittances to $42bn in FY26

State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Governor Jameel Ahmad has revised up its projection for the cumulative inflows of workers’ remittances to $42 billion in the ongoing fiscal year 2025-26, expecting the inflows would soar to new highs ahead the two upcoming Eids falling in March-June 2026.

Briefing media at the central bank’s head office in Karachi on Friday, Ahmad anticipated the inflows to reach $42 billion in the year under review against the central bank January 2026’s projection of around $41 billion in FY26, as overseas Pakistanis send significant amounts of remittances to their family and friends in the months falling around Eid-Ul-Fitr and Eid-Ul-Adha in the country.

“We can expect higher remittances as two Eids are falling head [in FY26],” he said.

Also read: Pakistan’s current account posts $244mn deficit in December 2025

Historical trends suggest the inflows peak around the Eid months. It hit an all-time high at $4.05 billion in March 2025 - the month when Eid-Ul-Fitr fell around last year, according to the central bank’s data.

The remittances surged 26% to record high $38.3 billion in FY25 compared to $30.3 billion in FY24.

Ahamd said the work on integration of Pakistan’s digital payment infrastructure with the Arab world’s Buna platform - a cross-border payment system in multiple currencies - had almost been completed.

“This will soon be launched, enabling Pakistanis living in the Arab world countries to send workers’ remittances swiftly to Pakistan and contribute towards enhanced inflows ahead.”

“Pakistan is also in talks with Saudi Arabia and UAE to integrate its digital payment system with the two GCC countries,” he added.

UAE and Saudi Arabia are the two countries where more than 70% Pakistani expatriates live and send the highest volume of remittances to Pakistan compared to from other parts of the world. The integration is expected to ensure speedy and improved inflows of workers remittances from there to Pakistan, it was learnt.

Exports outlook improve, but remain negative

The central bank chief Ahmad further said the SBP had also revised up its projection for exports, expecting that exports would remain better than the central bank’s January 2026’s projection of 6% contraction in FY26.

The exports would improve in the wake of the recent Prime Minister’s package to exporters. Last week, PM Shehbaz Sharif announced a reduction of three percentage points in export refinance scheme to 4.5% from 7.5%; cut electricity charges by Rs4.04 per unit; and brought electricity wheeling charges below Rs9 per unit for the industry.

“The package is expected to improve the export of rice from Pakistan in FY26. The rice exports are expected to remain above $2 billion in the ongoing fiscal year compared to the SBP previous projection for around $2 billion for the year [before the PM package announced],” Ahmad said, recalling the rice exports stood at around $3.3-3.4 billion in the previous year.

Pakistan rice exports hit the high following India banning rice exports to the world, which largely benefited the Pakistani rice exporters in the year. India has returned to the rice export market this year.