Dollar holds steady as mixed data sets up Friday’s jobs report

SINGAPORE: The dollar was calm on Thursday as investors weighed a slew of data that showed the U.S. economy was in a delicate position ahead of a crucial jobs report on Friday, with rising geopolitical tensions keeping sentiment in check.

The euro was steady at $1.1678 in early Asian hours, on course for a small weekly drop, while sterling bought $1.34605.

The yen was flat at 156.78 per US dollar as traders remained reluctant in placing major bets.

The Australian dollar fetched $0.6721, just below the 15-month high it touched earlier this week, while the New Zealand dollar was little changed at $0.5769.

Data on Thursday showed the U.S. labour market appeared stuck in a “no hire, no fire” state, with job openings falling more than expected in November while hiring eased.

The services sector activity though unexpectedly picked up in December, suggesting the economy ended 2025 on a solid footing. The spotlight will now be on the closely-watched nonfarm payrolls report due on Friday.

“The latest U.S. data releases paint a mixed picture of the economy,” said Lloyd Chan, senior currency analyst at MUFG. “For the Fed, this mix of signals could reinforce a cautious approach.”

Traders are pricing in at least two rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year, although a divided central bank indicated in December just one more cut for 2026. Markets broadly expect the Fed to stand pat on rates in January.

The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six rivals, was steady at 98.737 and set for a small gain for the week. The dollar is coming off its worst annual performance since 2017, with analysts predicting another year of decline, albeit a more modest drop.

“We might not see as many Fed rate cuts as expected in 2026, mainly because the country’s robust growth does not justify aggressive cutting,” said Matthias Scheiber, senior portfolio manager and the head of the multi-asset team at Allspring Global Investments.

“An ideology shift toward a more pro-growth approach in setting interest rates is possible. However, the Fed will need to very carefully communicate its outlook and method for handling the growth-versus-sticky inflation trade-off.”

Markets have mostly taken in stride the geopolitical worries across the globe after the U.S. intervention in Venezuela and the rising tensions between China and Japan this week, with currencies mostly calm through the week.

Prashant Newnaha, senior Asia-Pacific rates strategist at TD Securities, said the more important driver for the dollar will be a possible Supreme Court decision on U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff policies on Friday.

Speculation has increased that the decision could come as soon as Friday after the Supreme Court scheduled the day to make rulings. The court does not announce ahead of time which rulings it intends to issue.

“If there is a decision that the tariffs are constitutional, this takes the demand for refunds off the table. This would be USD positive,” Newnaha said.