India bonds steady as supply pressure offsets RBI’s plan to buy liquid notes

MUMBAI: Indian government bonds were largely unchanged on Monday after the central bank included liquid papers for this week’s open market purchase, aiding sentiment.

The benchmark 10-year yield was at 6.5949% as of 10:10 a.m. IST, after ending at 6.5931% on Friday. The yield had eased to 6.5741%.

Bond yields move inversely to prices.

“There is some bullish push after the central bank’s change of bond-buying strategy, but any major rally is seen curbed until the actual auction takes place,” a trader with a state-run bank said.

The Reserve Bank of India will buy bonds worth 500 billion rupees ($5.52 billion) on Thursday and has included more liquid papers, including the 7.18% 2033 and former benchmark 6.33% 2035 bonds.

This comes after the central bank bought a similar quantum of bonds last week at higher-than-estimated prices, which sparked a brief rally.

The RBI’s bond buying for this financial year has already hit a record high, with markets anticipating more purchases in the last quarter of the fiscal year.

Bond yields jumped last week, triggered by heavy paying in overnight index swaps as well as position cutting by foreign investors, causing a selloff in the Indian bond market. The benchmark bond yield rose 10 basis points last week, its biggest jump since the week ended August 18.

Bond yields and swap rates moved higher despite the central bank’s recent rate cut and liquidity injection, as traders grow skeptical about further monetary policy easing.

“Inflation is expected to rise further given the depreciation in the rupee. We forecast inflation for FY26 at 1.8% and for FY27 at 3.4% but do not see any change in RBI’s stance on present rates at least for February,” State Bank of India said.