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BR Research Print edition: 2025-10-14

Hopes and old habits

Published Updated

After signing a historic defence pact with Saudi Arabia, a delegation from the Kingdom visited Pakistan last week to explore business and investment opportunities. It is not the first time Pakistan has courted Saudi investment, but this visit feels different when viewed through the geopolitical lens. There is a growing sense that some of the new MOUs and understandings could actually translate into tangible business or investment deals.

The delegation visited all three major cities, meeting both government and private-sector representatives. A few MOUs were signed with federal and provincial governments, though these may mirror past cooperation, primarily financial support or oil supplies, perhaps on a larger scale this time. The real interest lies in business-to-business (B2B) engagement, where commercial deals could emerge beyond government-level assistance.

Saudi investors have shown keen interest in energy, infrastructure, agriculture, livestock, mining, construction, logistics, and finance. One possible deal could involve Saudis purchasing shares in K-Electric (KE) held by a third party, not new investment, but a change in ownership that could help resolve long-standing corporate disputes. A bigger headline would have been a Saudi MOU to acquire a distribution company like LESCO, but that still seems a distant possibility.

Reports also suggest an MOU between Saudi investors and the Bestway Group for collaboration in the rice business. Agriculture has long been a focus for Saudi Arabia, motivated by the need to secure food supply for its population. Plans reportedly include acquiring land and introducing modern agricultural technologies, an approach that could yield spillover benefits for local farmers but also risks prioritizing Saudi food security over Pakistan’s own.

Another area of interest appears to be banking, with the delegation reportedly exploring opportunities to buy controlling or partial stakes in Pakistani banks. The sector has performed strongly since privatization, attracting steady profits and investor interest. Some banks are already up for sale, while others may be open to selling stakes, again implying ownership shifts rather than fresh capital inflows.

From Pakistan’s perspective, the most desirable investment would be in the energy sector, particularly the long-promised Saudi refinery project that has been on the table since the Musharraf era. Yet, with the global pivot to renewables and a glut of refining capacity in the Middle East, such projects have lost economic appeal.

The most likely greenfield investments are now in agriculture and construction, sectors where Saudis can buy land and seek quick returns. Construction offers short-term payoffs, while agricultural projects align with Saudi Arabia’s food security goals. What Pakistan truly needs, however, is investment in manufacturing and industrial production, but that requires getting its own house in order, especially in energy pricing, taxation, and policy consistency.

Until those reforms take root, Pakistan will continue to rely on geopolitical rent, celebrating small symbolic wins while fundamental risks keep rising.

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