MOSCOW: Russian wheat export prices continued to rise last week due to the new crop coming to market too slowly and the risk of a lower harvest in the south of the country, analysts said.
The price for new crop Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content for free-on-board delivery in August was $236 per metric ton at the end of last week, up $7 from the previous week, said Dmitry Rylko, head of the IKAR consultancy.
The Sovecon consultancy estimated new crop offers at $228-$230 per ton, compared with $228–$230 in the prior week.
“The price is rising on the back of short-covering and on rumours of a worsening harvest in the south of the country and in the centre,” said IKAR head Dmitry Rylko, referring to traders buying wheat to close their short positions.
The harvesting campaign in Russia’s southern regions is nearing completion.
Howeve r, demand from exporters still exceeds the pace of the new crop’s arrival on the market, which has been delayed this season by the late start of harvesting and farmers holding onto their grain in expectation of higher prices.
“Every day we see that the inflow of grain to the terminals is increasing,” Rylko said, suggesting that the situation will balance out in the next week or two.
Rostov region’s governor, Yuri Slyusar, said that the forecast for the grain harvest in the region had been reduced by 30% to eight million tons due to dry weather.
The Krasnodar region, whose northern districts were also hit by drought, has extended an agriculture emergency regime to nine more municipalities. Such a regime enables farmers to seek compensation for crop losses. Stavropol has already harvested more than 8.5 million tons of grain from 85% of the area so far.
SovEcon’s wheat export estimate for July is 2.4 million tons, compared with 3.9 million tons in July 2024.
IKAR’s wheat export estimate for July is just over 2 million tons, but analysts allow for the possibility of acceleration towards the end of the month.
The export duty on wheat, which the Russian Ministry of Agriculture calculates weekly, will remain zero for the third week in a row until July 29.
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