Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari on Friday said fresh data published Friday shows the labor market is strong, and if inflation continues to cool, the U.S. central bank’s policy rate will be “modestly” lower by the end of the year than now.
For now, he said, the Fed is in “wait and see” mode amid uncertainty over the economic effects of Trump administration policies, he told CNBC.
With unemployment at 4% and a cooling rental market poised to help bring overall inflation closer to the Fed’s 2% goal, he said, “we’re in a very good place to just sit here until we get a lot more information on the tariff front, on the immigration front, on the tax front, etc.”
Meanwhile, he said, the next two months of inflation data will be paramount in shaping Fed policy, he said.
US Fed starts rate deliberations with pause expected
“If we see very good data on the inflation front while the labor market stays strong, then I think that would for me move me towards supporting easing further,” Kashkari said.
“Barring something really surprising on the tariff front, immigration front, or fiscal policy front – so taking off some extreme outcomes there – I think inflation will continue to come down over this year,” Kashkari said. “All things equal, I would expect the federal funds rate to be modestly lower this year, at the end of this year, relative to where we are right now.”
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