Russian drought threatens 2025 grain crops

MOSCOW: Russia’s winter crop sowing is in a very difficult situation due to severe drought, which is expected to seriously affect next year’s harvest, analysts and farming company executives said on Friday.

The Sovecon consultancy warned earlier this week that wheat sowing rates in Russia have fallen to an 11-year low, clouding the outlook for the 2025 grain harvest in the world’s top wheat exporter. Chicago wheat prices climbed to their highest in almost two weeks on the warning before sliding again on demand worries.

“We are closely monitoring the situation with the winter crops. It appears to be extremely difficult, potentially turning into some kind of dramatic scenario,” IKAR consultancy head Dmitry Rylko told an agricultural investors conference. Rylko said the situation in Volgograd and Saratov regions, Russia’s forth and sixth largest grain producing regions, was particularly difficult.

Kirill Yershov, head of Aeon Agro, which cultivates over 240,000 hectares in Russia’s Penza and Saratov regions, said that “there will be problems” with the wheat harvest next year. “I can say that the situation is very critical, everything is in dry soil.

We planted even less than last year. I know that many have planted less,” Yershov said. Alexander Pryanishnikov from plant protection products maker Shchelkovo Agrokhim said farmers in Penza, Saratov and Mordovia regions in the Volga area have seen unprecedented sowing rates. “In all the years I’ve worked with winter crops, I have never seen such a disheartening situation.” he said.

Weather extremes ranging from early spring frost to drought to heavy rains have hit Russia’s main agricultural areas this year, dampening a boom in the sector that has in recent years become a success story despite Western sanctions.

Just as southern and Volga river regions suffered from extreme drought in September which is not expected to abate for another two weeks, several grain producing regions in Siberia declared an emergency due to heavy rains.

Russia had seen a record grain harvest of 158 million metric tons in 2022 but has since experienced a decline with 148 million tons harvested last year and 132 million tons officially expected to be harvested this year.

IKAR has cut its forecast for Russia’s wheat crop this year to 81.8 million metric tons from 82.2 million tons and for the grain crop to 124.5 million tons from 125 million tons.