Govt advised to fill Tarbela Dam to maximum capacity: PMD dismisses possibility of high flood

LAHORE: The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has dismissed the possibility of a high flood ahead and advised the government to fill the Tarbela Dam to its maximum capacity, according to sources. Currently, the dam is 95% full, relying on glacier deposits, whereas the rain-dependent Mangla Dam has reached 67% capacity.

The government sought PMD’s guidance on the upcoming monsoon rain intensity before deciding on water storage in dams. The sources indicate a 275,000 cusecs flow at Tarbela, signifying a low to medium flood risk in case of heavy rains. However, a high-level flood is only possible if the flow exceeds 500,000 cusecs.

The PMD predicts the water flow at Tarbela will decrease to 200,000 cusecs by August 20th, reducing the likelihood of a high flood. Meanwhile, the Mangla Dam is receiving a flow of 29,000 cusecs. The PMD also assured officials that India’s dams are half empty, eliminating the possibility of water release from India.

Notably, the heat intensity is expected to decrease after August 25th, further reducing the chances of monsoon rains. Heat intensity plays a crucial role in stimulating moisture in monsoon currents.

Last year, the Indian government released 700,000 cusecs of water into the Sutlej River to prevent widespread destruction. However, it was later revealed that the relevant dam had been filled to a hazardous level by Indian authorities before releasing the water into the Sutlej River, which flows towards Pakistan. By doing so, India had attempted to mitigate the intensity of the water release before it entered Pakistani territory and saved human livestock lives on both sides of the Ganda Singh border.

In 2010, on the contrary, a massive inflow of 800,000 cusecs into the Tarbela dam was mishandled by the authorities, resulting in devastating consequences. The mismanagement led to the streets of Nowshera city being inundated with mud, reaching depths of up to 2 feet, causing widespread damage and disruption.

According to the PMD data from July 1st to August 13th, Pakistan has experienced 17% above-normal rainfall. However, the distribution of rainfall varied significantly across regions. The breakdown is as follows: Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) received 43% less rainfall than normal, Balochistan received 76% more rainfall than normal, Gilgit-Baltistan received 57% less rainfall than normal, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) received 12% less rainfall than normal, Punjab received 21% more rainfall than normal, and Sindh received 6% more rainfall than normal.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2024