The Red Sea challenge

EDITORIAL: Though many of those familiar with the Middle East’s central theatre of conflict would have factored in a lot of what was triggered by the Gaza genocide, including the unprecedented direct exchange between Iran and Israel and the increasing possibility of the Lebanese border turning very hot – as, indeed, some did – very few, if any, would have thought that Yemen’s poor Houthis, already marginalised, bombed, and battered by years of war, would raise hell in the Red Sea and trigger a macro shipping and supply chain crisis that would rattle the whole world.

This business has been forcing up shipping insurance – which, in such cases, ultimately exerts upward pressure on international commodity prices – since November, when the Houthis began expressing solidarity with Palestinians by firing rockets and missiles at passing ships. Yet these costs, as well as these attacks, have been increasing despite a coordinated international effort to stomp them out. And now, when Houthis sinking two cargo ships in a few days, the stakes from this particular fallout of the war alone may have risen too high for the global economy to endure much longer for two main reasons.

One, in some cases insurance costs have jumped to as high as the worth of the transported goods themselves, traumatising financial markets. And two, the Houthis have introduced sea-borne drones that impact “at the level of the sea”. Their previous choice of armoury, rockets and missiles mostly caused deck and superstructure damage to ships, but these hit just where they meet the water and cause much more harm; with two sunk ships at the bottom of the Red Sea to prove it.

Let’s not forget, as touched upon earlier, that this uptick comes just when daily post-Oct 7 IDF-Hezbollah exchanges are intensifying across the Lebanese border. That means Iran-backed militias are emboldening in the face of Israel’s belligerence in Gaza, which is unlikely to go unaddressed, and chances of a much wider war are increasing by the day. That’s sure to spark a lot more headaches for the international community and economy, and worsen the one in the Red Sea, so if there is a time to stop this madness from spiraling any further out of orbit, it is now. And since most problems like the one in the Red Sea stem from Israel’s genocide in Gaza, which only goes on because of the shameless full backing of Washington, the only sane thing to do right now is for the sole superpower to lean on its favourite ally and stop the war.

That has not happened so far. There was a glimmer of hope when American authorities held back one shipment of arms because Israel ignored its warnings and began the Rafah operation, but all that is already history. The latest disturbing news is that Washington might have green-lighted the opening of the Lebanese front as well which, if true, means that the US is not only complicit in the genocide in Gaza but also the main driving force of another brutal war that might just be about to break out.

Should that happen, the Middle East will become a lot more volatile and the Red Sea nightmare might become one of the world’s smaller problems.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2024