ISLAMABAD: The country is likely to achieve the agriculture growth target of 3.5 percent set for 2023-24 by meeting the target of major crops including cotton and rice production which would contribute positively to the budgeted Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth target of 3.5 percent.
A senior official of the Ministry of National Food Security and Research (MNFS&R) said that the increase in the production of cotton, rice as well as minor crops, and positive growth in the livestock sector would help achieve the agriculture growth target.
Agriculture sector, contributes 22.9 percent to GDP and 37.4 percent in employment generation, ensures food security and provides raw material to the industrial sector.
The official said that cotton production for 2023-24 was estimated at 11.5 million bales from an area of 2.4 million hectares, showing an increase of 126.6 percent in production over the last year.
Rice production for 2023-24 is estimated at 8.64 million tons from an area of 3.35 million hectares showing an increase of 12.7 percent and 18 percent in area and production respectively over last year, he said.
The official said that sugarcane production is estimated at 78.5 million tons from an area of 1.7 million hectares showing a decrease of 10.74 percent and 10.9 percent in area and production respectively over the last year.
Pakistan produced 10.3 million tons of maize showing a decrease of 6.07 percent in production and 2.40 percent in area over last year, he said.
Production of Mung bean for 2023-24 is estimated at 143.6 thousand tons from an area of 198 thousand hectares showing an increase of 6.42 percent, Maash production for 2023-24 is estimated at 5.28 thousand tons from an area of 7.36 thousand hectares showing an increase of 24.65 percent and chilies production is estimated at 1.36 thousand tons form an area of 122.1 thousand hectares showing an increase of 2.33 percent, the official further revealed.
Another official in the animal husbandry section of MNFS&R said that the share of livestock in the agriculture sector is likely to increase by 64 percent.
However, despite achieving agriculture growth target, there is a consensus amongst the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank, Asian Development Bank (ADB) and independent economists that the country is unlikely to achieve the budgeted GDP growth target of 3.5 percent set for the current fiscal year, amid high interest rate, low imports due to paucity of foreign exchange reserves and high inflation.
The IMF has projected GDP growth rate for Pakistan at 2.5 percent for 2024, which is likely to be revised when data for the first quarter is shared with the IMF for the completion of the first review of the Stand By Arrangement (SBA).
The World Bank projected GDP growth rate at 1.7 percent for 2023-24 while ADB has projected growth at 1.9 percent.
Talking to Business Recorder, former Finance Ministry Adviser Dr Ashfaque Hassan Khan projected GDP growth rate at around 2 percent. He said that due to high interest rate, low imports as well as low investment, economic activities would remain slow, resultantly affecting production.
The overall Large Scale Manufacturing industries (LSMI) output registered a growth of 0.50 percent during July-August 2023-24 compared to the same period of last year, while it witnessed 2.52 percent growth in August 2023 compared to August 2022 and 8.44 percent compared to July 2023.
However, the growth rate for the current year is based on a very low base last year when LSMI registered negative 10.26 percent growth compared to the same period of 2021-22.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2023
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