MUMBAI: The Indian rupee is expected to decline on Friday after the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, lifting the US dollar and US yields.
Non-deliverable forwards indicate the rupee will open at around 82.06-82.08 to the US dollar, compared with 81.9850 in the previous session.
“Just when there was a slight downside momentum (on USD/INR), the dollar is on its way up,” a forex trader at a bank said.
The USD/INR pair will be “a bit bid” at open, but “that should be about it and a quiet day awaits.”
The rupee through the week has been in a narrow 25 paisa range.
The dollar index and US yields rose after data indicated the US labour market remained resilient, which increased the probability that the Federal Reserve may deliver a rate hike beyond its July meeting.
Initial claims for unemployment benefits dropped 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 228,000, the lowest since mid-May. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 242,000 claims for the latest week.
Supported by the jobless claims data, the dollar has reversed course and investors are worried that any data that indicates the economy is doing well will drag the rate hike cycle further, said Srinivas Puni, managing director at QuantArt Market Solutions.
The dollar index reached just shy of 101 on Thursday.
The 2-year US climbed to above 4.80%.
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The Fed next week is widely expected to deliver a 25 basis points rate hike.
Investors were pricing a prolonged pause after that, but if US labor market data continues to surprise positively, a hike in September or November is likely.
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