NEW YORK: US natural gas futures edged lower in volatile trading on Wednesday, erasing earlier gains on their last day as the contract for January delivery despite forecasts for colder weather and higher heating demand over the next two weeks.
On the last day as the front-month contract, gas futures slipped 3.1 cents, or 0.8%, to settle at $4.024 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). The contract rose more than 5% to their highest level since Dec. 3 earlier in the day.
“The January contract saw some wide swings across about a 35-cent range into today’s expiration,” advisory firm Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note.
“Although much of this volatility appeared to reflect last-minute liquidation from both the longs and the shorts, the Jan contract eventually relinquished its role as the strongest portion of the curve despite coldest temperatures of the season moving into the nation’s mid-continent this coming weekend.”
Data provider Refinitiv estimated 454 heating degree days (HDDs) over the next two weeks in the Lower 48 US states, up from the 419 HDDs estimated on Tuesday. The normal is 439 HDDs for this time of year.
HDDs, used to estimate demand to heat homes and businesses, measure the number of degrees a day’s average temperature is below 65 Fahrenheit (18 Celsius).
Refinitiv projected average US gas demand, including exports, would jump from 109.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) this week to 125.6 bcfd next week as the weather turns seasonally colder. Those forecasts were higher than Refinitiv’s outlook on Tuesday.
Global gas prices have repeatedly hit record highs as utilities around the world scrambled for LNG cargoes to replenish low stockpiles in Europe and meet insatiable demand in Asia, where energy shortfalls have caused power blackouts in China.
US futures jumped to a 12-year high of more than $6 per mmBtu in early October but have retreated because the United States has plenty of gas in storage and ample production for winter.
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