Brazil's 2021 coffee crop forecast cut to 56.5mn bags

NEW YORK: The coffee crop this year in the world's largest producer Brazil should reach 56.5 million 60-kg bags, consultancy Safras & Mercado said on Thursday, cutting its previous forecast of 57.1 million bags.

Safras now expects the harvest of arabica beans to reach 34.7 million bags versus 35.2 million bags previously. Compared to last year's crop, the reduction on arabica production is 31%.

The consultancy adjusted slightly upwards its projection for robusta coffee production in Brazil by 100,000 bags to 21.8 million bags. The Brazilian robusta crop is seen growing 12% from last year.

The sharp reduction for arabica, a milder variety and the main coffee used by major processors such as Starbucks and Nespresso, was caused by drier-than-normal weather all along the development period since late last year.

Brazil is also in the off-year in the biennial arabica production cycle which alternates years of higher and lower production, but the reduction expected so far is larger than normal.

Robusta is a more resistant plant, and fields in Brazil, which are in a different region to arabica, received more rain.

"The moisture situation for robusta fields is more comfortable and the crop developed well," said Safras coffee analyst Gil Barabach.

Other analysts expect even lower coffee production in Brazil. Broker StoneX sees total production at 51.4 million bags.

Safras estimates that Brazilian coffee growers harvested 11% of the fields so far, a number that is below the average in the last five crops of 13%.