BEIJING: China’s refined copper imports are expected to fall by around 27% in 2021 from last year’s bumper levels while primary aluminium inflows will more than halve, state-backed research house Antaike said on Friday.
Top metals consumer China imported record amounts of copper and aluminium in 2020 as a rapid demand recovery from the impact of COVID-19 pushed Chinese metal prices above international prices, opening up an arbitrage for cheaper overseas metal to flow in.
Antaike, the research arm of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, sees refined copper imports totalling 3.4 million tonnes this year, down 27.2% from 4.67 million tonnes in 2020, analyst He Xiaohui said in an annual market outlook event.
After last year’s unprecedented purchases, imports will “return to a reasonable level” this year, he said. The arbitrage window has closed and Antaike expects China’s own refined copper production to increase in 2021.
Higher copper scrap imports - under a new system that places no restrictions on very high-grade material - could replace some refined copper imports, depending on prices, He added.
Scrap imports “are surely going to rise ... but it takes one-two years to recover to the level in 2018/19 as the market needs to coordinate with new policies, while trade is also affected by the pandemic,” He said.
Antaike sees China’s refined copper consumption rising 3.7% this year on strong demand from the auto, real estate and power sectors.
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