US natural gas futures fall to one-week low on milder weather forecasts

US natural gas futures fell to their lowest in a week on Monday on forecasts for less cold weather and heating demand in late January than previously expected.

Traders noted that decline came despite forecasts for colder weather and higher heating demand this week and as global gas prices remain at their highest levels in years, prompting buyers in Europe and Asia to keep purchasing record amounts of US liquefied natural gas (LNG).

Front-month gas futures fell 6 cents, or 2.2%, to $2.640 per million British thermal units at 8:03 a.m. EST (1303 GMT), putting the contract on track for its lowest close since Jan. 4.

Speculators, meanwhile, boosted their net long positions last week on the New York Mercantile and Intercontinental Exchanges for the first time in three weeks because the forecasts then were still calling for much colder weather in mid to late January.

Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 US states averaged 91.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in January. That compares with an eight-month high of 91.5 bcfd in December 2020 and a record monthly high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019.

Refinitiv projected average gas demand, including exports, would fall from 129.3 bcfd this week to 125.6 bcfd as the weather turns milder.

The amount of gas flowing to US LNG export plants has averaged 10.8 bcfd so far in January, topping December's 10.7 bcfd record.

That all-time LNG export high came as gas futures hit their highest since February 2013 in Asia and December 2018 in Europe.