EU sharply cuts soft wheat harvest forecast again

PARIS: The European Commission on Thursday made another big reduction to its forecast for this year's common wheat harvest in the European Union, lowering expected output to 117.2 million tonnes from 121.5 million estimated a month ago.

Projected usable production of common wheat, or soft wheat, in the 2020/21 season would now be more than 10% below last year's crop of 130.9 million, the Commission's supply and demand projections showed.

At the end of May, the Commission had already reduced its soft wheat crop forecast by over 4 million tonnes.

Its data showed that it had revised downwards this month both its area and yield estimates for EU soft wheat.

The Commission did not give reasons for the forecast cut but it followed a further reduction by the EU's crop monitoring service to its yield outlook last week due to very dry conditions this spring.

Country estimates shown by the Commission included a projected crop of 30.3 million tonnes for top EU wheat grower France, down 12% from last year.

Other forecasters have reduced sharply forecasts for EU wheat production due to parched spring conditions, although some analysts say prospects have improved following rain and moderate temperatures during June.

For exports, the Commission reduced its projection of EU-27 shipments of common wheat for the 2020/21 season that starts in July to 25.0 million tonnes from 26.5 million previously.

That compared with an increased estimate of 34 million tonnes for 2019/20.

For maize, the EU's executive raised its harvest forecast for a second straight month, projecting the crop at 71.9 million tonnes against 71.4 million seen last month.

Expected barley output was little changed at 56.1 million tonnes compared with 56.2 million a month ago.

The forecast EU-27 rapeseed crop was reduced to 15.4 million tonnes from 15.6 million last month, and is now in line with last year's poor crop.