SAO PAULO: Coffee exporters in Brazil, the world's largest producer, see shipments in 2017 around the same 30 million bags shipped in 2016 despite talk of a weaker off-cycle 2017/18 crop.
Brazil coffee exporters' association, Cecafe, said in a Wednesday briefing that it is still not clear if production will fall much due to the usual drop in yields during the biannual production cycle.
"I am not sure if the off-cycle is going to be so intense to the point that it would impact exports," said Nelson Carvalhaes, the head of Cecafe. "It's too early to say and that difference between years of high and low production has been falling in recent years."
Cecafe said in a report that Brazilian green coffee exports reached 2.75 million 60-kg bags in December, down from 2.93 million bags a year earlier. Total shipments in 2016 reached 30.15 million bags, down from 33.44 million bags in 2015.
The drop was due largely to a much smaller robusta crop as the main regions growing that variety suffered from a second year of below average rains.
Robusta exports in 2016 reached only 580,313 bags, down sharply from 4.21 million bags in 2015. Arabica volumes edged up to 29.56 million bags compared to 29.22 million bags in 2015.
Some analysts are expecting a significant reduction in output in 2017/18, arguing that the large crop in the previous season stressed trees.
Exporter Terra Forte projected a 12 percent production drop in the new crop after a recent field trip to the main producing regions.
The smaller robusta sales cut Brazil's share of global coffee consumption to 29 percent in 2016 from 32 percent in 2015, Cecafe said.
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