Wheat set for biggest weekly gain in 16 months on supply concerns

21 Jul, 2023

SINGAPORE: Chicago wheat futures rose on Friday and were poised for their biggest weekly gain in more than 16 months, as Russian attacks on Ukrainian ports raised worries over global supply.

Corn fell, while soybeans were largely unchanged. Both markets were on track for weekly gains on outlooks for hot and dry weather in key growing areas of the US Midwest.

“Prices for Black Sea wheat are going up as the war in Russia and Ukraine has escalated,” said one Singapore-based grains trader.

“Buyers are not panicking as of now, they are just waiting and watching.”

The most-active wheat contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) was up 0.5% at $7.30-3/4 a bushel, as of 0309 GMT, corn fell 0.4% to $5.44-1/4 a bushel and soybeans added a quarter of a cent to $14.05 a bushel.

For the week, wheat has climbed 10.5% and is poised for its biggest weekly gain since March 2022. Corn has added almost 6% and soybeans have gained 2.5%.

Renewed concerns over supplies from the Black Sea region underpinned wheat prices.

Ukraine’s Defence Ministry said on Thursday it would consider all ships travelling to Russian ports and Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea that are occupied by Moscow as potential carriers of military cargo from July 21.

The announcement came a day after the Kremlin said ships heading to Ukraine’s Black Sea ports could be considered military targets.

Wheat jumps to three-week high on Ukrainian supplies hit

Russia has jolted world grain markets with an escalation in the Black Sea, mounting three nights of air strikes on Ukrainian ports.

The International Grains Council on Thursday raised its forecast for 2023/24 global corn production by 9 million metric tons to 1.22 billion metric tons, largely reflecting an improved outlook in the United States.

The inter-governmental body, in a monthly update, forecast US corn production at 383.7 million metric tons, up from a previous projection of 373.4 million tons.

Rains that have slaked Argentina’s drought-hit farmlands have allowed soil moisture to recover and 71% of the area planned for wheat harvesting has now been planted under fair water conditions, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said on Thursday.

Commodity funds were net sellers of CBOT corn, soybean, wheat and soymeal futures contracts on Thursday, traders said.

The funds were net buyers of CBOT soyoil futures.

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