SINGAPORE: US oil may retest a support at $77.42 per barrel, a break below which could open the way towards $76.44.

The rise from the Feb. 15 low of $77.25 proved to be a bounce against the fall from $80.62. It was driven by a wave B, which is expected to be reversed by the current wave C.

A projection analysis on the wave C reveals a target of $76.17, a break below which could confirm the extension of this wave towards $74.09. Resistance is at $78.25, a break above which could lead to a gain into $78.64-$79.05 range.

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On the daily chart, the hope for a rising three method evaporated, as oil was too weak to climb above $80.62. The next big move could be a fall towards $71.76, which will be confirmed when oil breaks $77.24.