SINGAPORE: US oil looks neutral in a range of $96.91 to $99.38 per barrel, and an escape could suggest a direction.

The drop from $109.81 may consist of either three waves or five waves.

It is not very clear that the current bounce is driven by a wave d.

The clear part is that a break above $99.38 may lead to a gain into $101.37-$103.36 range, while a break below $96.91 could confirm the continuation of the downtrend towards $92.93-$95.23 range.

On the daily chart, the consolidation from $116.64 has been shaped into a wedge, which may either turn out to be a bearish continuation pattern or a part of the big correction from $130.50.

US oil may fall into $95.23-$96.91 range

The focus is on a pivotal support at $93.79, a break below which could confirm the continuation of the downtrend towards $79.67.

The uptrend from $62.43 is likely to resume if oil keeps hovering above $93.79.