South Africa's rand firmer ahead of CPI, retail sales data

17 Nov, 2021

JOHANNESBURG: South Africa's rand firmed early on Wednesday, as traders awaited consumer price inflation and retail sales data due later in the day, as well as an interest rate decision on Thursday.

At 0650 GMT, the rand traded at 15.4875 against the dollar, 0.19% firmer than its previous close, recovering after hitting 15.5700 earlier - its weakest in more than eight months as the dollar strengthened.

Investors are awaiting domestic inflation data, due alongside retail sales data on Wednesday, and the South African Reserve Bank's (SARB) monetary policy committee meeting on Thursday.

"Today's CPI and retail sales data will be important gauges to see if the SARB will raise interest rates," said Bianca Botes, director at Citadel Global.

The central bank slashed its repo rate by 300 basis points last year to a record low as the economy battled the coronavirus crisis. However, inflation has accelerated since July's 4.6% year-on-year to 5% in September.

A Reuters poll found 13 of 20 economists surveyed between Nov. 10-12 said the SARB would keep the repo rate unchanged at 3.50%, while the other seven predicted a hike of 25 basis points.

But in an extra question answered by 12 economists, a median of responses suggested there was an almost 50% chance the SARB would hike interest rates at this meeting.

In fixed income, the yield on benchmark 2030 government bond was up a single basis point to 9.465%.

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