SINGAPORE: US oil may retest a support at $83.03 per barrel, a break below which could cause a fall into $81.12-$82.18 range.

A five-wave cycle from $74.96 may have ended. The wave 4 completed around $81.12. Over the next few days, oil may fall towards this level.

From a longer perspective, the five-wave cycle makes the final part of a trend from the Sept. 1 low of $67.12. This trend could have reversed as well.

The bounce triggered by the support at $83.03 seems to have ended around a resistance at $84.94, a break above which may lead to a gain into $85.66-$86.64 range.

Such a break looks highly unlikely, due to the multiple bearish divergences on the hourly RSI. The divergence also appeared on the daily chart.

Two hanging men plus a shooting star strongly suggest the exhaustion of the uptrend.

The 200% projection level of $85.14 may serve as a limit to any further gain.

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