SINGAPORE: CBOT wheat may seek a support in a zone of $5.60-1/2 to $5.89-1/2 per bushel next quarter, before resuming its uptrend from $3.59-1/2.

The uptrend may at least extend to $7.31-3/4, the 38.2% retracement of the downtrend from $13.34-1/2 to $3.59-1/2. An aggressive target range is from $8.47 to $9.62, which engulfs the peak of the wave B at $9.47-1/4.

The trend seems to be zigzagging up, confined within a rising channel. The lower channel line indicates a completion of the current fall around $5.60-1/2, or $5.89-1/2, if it is very shallow.

Wave pattern suggests the progress of a wave C, which has briefly travelled above its 114.6% projection level of $6.83-3/4. It has a better chance of extending into the range of $7.38-3/4 to $7.94.

A break above $6.49-3/4 may indicate a resumption of the wave C towards $7.31-3/4. However, confirmation of the resumption will be when wheat rises above $6.83-3/4.

On the daily chart, a five-wave cycle from the June 26, 2020 low of $4.68 has completed. However, the drop observes closely a set of retracements on the uptrend from $4.16 to $6.93. The support at $6.28 is broken.

The break opened the way towards $5.87-1/4.

The pattern between Jan. 15 and March 18 could be roughly regarded as a double-top, which suggests a target around $5.54-1/4, close to the bottom of the wave 4.

This target will be confirmed when wheat breaks $5.87-1/4.

A rise above $6.27-1/2 may be extended to $6.52-1/2.

Only a break above $6.73-1/2 could signal the continuation of the uptrend.

Each reader should consult his or her own professional or other advisers for business, financial or legal advice regarding the products mentioned in the analyses.