The country had an exportable surplus of 4 million tonnes in 2011/12 but the average projection of industry experts for the next year was around just one million.

The majority of respondents, taking part in the annual Kingsman conference, said the government was unlikely to intervene or stop exports altogether after poor rains hit the cane crop in the growing areas of western and southern India.

But the lowest prediction was for an exportable surplus of just 100,000 tonnes and the highest still saw the current figure roughly halved to 2.5 million tonnes.

India has been a net exporter of the sweetener for the last two seasons as output outstripped domestic demand. After its last drought in 2009 it had to import, sending prices soaring.

"Monsoon has been mixed over the cane areas as displayed by the poor rains in Maharashtra and Karnataka, but they are good in Uttar Pradesh," said Gurmit Singh Mann, chairman and managing director of Simbhaoli Sugars.

The Indian government will release its maiden sugar production estimates for 2012/13 later this month after the June-September monsoon retreats from the south Asian country.

"The million dollar question of sugar exports will depend on government policies," said Samir Somaiya, chairman of Godavari Biorefineries and a former president of the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA).

India is estimated to have produced 26 million tonnes in the current year with an annual domestic consumption of about 22 million tonnes. The median estimate for 2012/13 production was 24 million tonnes.