Aussie unsettled

Updated 28 Nov, 2019

The Aussie traded a shade softer at $0.6786, having briefly been as low as $0.6768 overnight. It again lagged the New Zealand dollar which held firm at $0.6425.

The market had assumed the effective floor for rates was 0.5%, but Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Philip Lowe indicated they could fall to 0.25% before it would consider unconventional steps such as buying government bonds.

Futures reacted by rapidly pricing in the risk of two further rate cuts from the current 0.75%, as opposed to just one. An easing to 0.5% was now fully priced by May next year, while a drop to 0.25% was seen as a 30% chance by November.

All of which helped three-year bond futures climb 5 ticks to a six-week peak at 99.320, implying a yield of 0.68%.

Yields on the cash 10-year bond dropped to 1.05% and further away from the November top of 1.34%.

Markets are not nearly so bullish on New Zealand, where a single quarter-point rate cut to 0.75% is priced as, at most, a 70% probability by late next year.

As a result, Aussie 10-year yields were now 28 basis points below NZ yields, compared to 11 basis points early this month.

Copyright Reuters, 2019

Read Comments