Russian rouble boosted by higher oil prices, bond sale

10 Jul, 2019

Prices for oil, Russia's key export, jumped by more than 2pc after industry data showed US inventories fell more than expected, while major US producers evacuated rigs in the Gulf of Mexico ahead of a storm.

At 1130 GMT, the rouble gained 0.5pc to 63.6 versus the dollar, recovering in thin trade from levels of around 63.9 seen at the market opening.

Against the euro, the rouble strengthened by 0.4pc to 71.3 .

The rouble was one of the best-performing currencies on Wednesday, particularly thanks to rising oil prices, analysts at Bank Saint-Petersburg said in a note.

The Russian currency was also supported by the finance ministry's weekly auction of OFZ bonds on Wednesday. Investors tend to convert foreign currency into roubles to take part in such auctions.

Demand for OFZ bonds maturing in 2025 reached 52 billion roubles ($817.16 million), exceeding the actual placement size of 15.7 billion roubles.

Raiffeisen bank analysts said that such bonds with yields of around 7.3pc are in demand among those investors who expect the Russian central bank to cut its key interest rate, now at 7.5pc, in an "aggressive manner" in the future.

Apart from domestic factors, investors were also waiting for US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's testimony later on Wednesday.

Traders are betting the Fed chief will try to nuance his message to signal a quarter point cut later this month rather than the 50 basis point move some had bet on before last week's relatively upbeat US payrolls report.

"Strong data on the (US) labour market last week has somewhat reduced the likelihood of a sharp decline in interest rates," said Mikhail Poddubsky, an analyst at Promsvyazbank.

But any rate cut in the United States should boost demand for emerging market assets, such as the rouble and Russia's OFZ treasury bonds.

The dollar-denominated RTS index was flat at 1,394 points. The rouble-based MOEX Russian index was 0.2pc lower at 2,816 points.

Copyright Reuters, 2019

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