Euro, Aussie dollar drop on global growth, Greece fears

NEW YORK: The euro slumped to its lowest level against the dollar in two-and-a-half weeks on Tuesday as global economic
06 Mar, 2012

Risk aversion marked trading with the Australian and New Zealand dollars both tumbling to their lowest levels in over a month a day after China, the world's second-largest economy, announced its lowest annual growth target in eight years.

Uncertainty about Greece's ability to complete a major debt restructuring deal with private sector creditors before Thursday also knocked the euro down. Details about their involvement will not emerge until the end of the week, with the Greek bond swap window closing on Thursday.

"With the ECB's LTRO in the rear view mirror, the market has shifted focus to the outlook for economic growth in China and the US in addition the uncertainty surrounding the Greece debt exchange offer," said Andrew Cox, G10 strategist at CitiFX, a division of Citigroup, in New York

China cut its growth forecast to 7.5 percent from 8 percent, well below the 10.7 percent average pace recorded over the past decade.

The euro has mostly been on a downward trajectory against the dollar ever since the European Central Bank completed its Longer Term Refinancing Operation last Wednesday. While the LTRO assuaged bank funding concerns, the offer of cheap loans was deemed by some as tantamount to quantitaive easing.

The euro was last down 0.7 percent at $1.3124, having dropped to around $1.3111, its weakest in 2-1/2 weeks after triggering sell orders on the break of Monday's $1.3160 low.

Technical support was expected from the 55-day moving average around $1.3071.

"Trading should remain choppy and the market should remain in a consolidation mode, biased for weakness in broader asset markets until the end of week," Cox said.

"The risk reward is for people who are long equities, long Australian dollar and short yen to cut those positions," said Nick Beecroft, senior markets consultant at Saxo Bank, adding that equities were poised to fall after "an extraordinary run."

"The euro has been remarkably resilient, but I think we've seen the top of the range for the next few weeks and there are mines out there that could push it back below $1.30."

Concerns about a faltering euro zone economy also pushed the euro down 1.4 percent against the yen at 106.24.

Revised GDP data confirmed the euro zone economy looked set for recession after contracting in the fourth quarter of 2011. This followed purchasing manager surveys on Monday which highlighted a weak outlook for the region.

Greece and its creditors are in the final stages of talks aimed at a deal to cancel more than 100 billion euros of its private sector debts - a key part of a 130 billion euros bailout, the second rescue Athens has required.

"Indications the bond swap will succeed are modest EUR positive, while any clear evidence it will not will be dramatically negative," BNP Paribas said in a note.

AUSSIE and KIWI TUMBLE

The Australian dollar hit a global session low against the US dollar at $1.0550, its lowest level since Jan. 30. It last traded at $1.0562, down 1 percent on the day, according to Reuters data.

The New Zealand dollar hit a low of $0.8110, its lowest since Jan. 25. It last traded at $0.8124, down 1 percent on the day.

"We're in risk-off mode at the moment and it's starting to gather momentum. Sentiment has turned toward China which has unnerved people generally," said Gavin Friend, FX strategist at National Australia Bank.

A Reserve Bank of Australia decision to keep rates on hold but leave the door open for a cut should the economy weaken materially also weighed on the Australian dollar, which analysts said may have further to fall.

The low-yielding yen outperformed against the dollar, which retreated after failing for a second time to break above a nine-month high of 81.86 yen. It was last at 80.94 yen, down 0.7 percent on the day.

The dollar has gained nearly 7 percent versus the yen since late January, helped by a surprise Bank of Japan easing and a record Japanese trade deficit.

Copyright Reuters, 2012

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