As debate on increasing area under sugarcane cultivation rages, BR Research analysed micro-level district wise figures for Punjab to tease out the factors driving the same.

The small-scale study required comparison of raw data published by association of sugar millers (PSMA) for latest marketing year, juxtaposed against district-wise crop estimates for FY17 reported by Punjab Directorate of Agriculture.

Numbers fail to confirm the populist perception in media reports of last couple of years that sugarcane cultivation has become concentrated completely in South Punjab region. Instead, area with both the largest number of mills and area under cultivation turns out to be central Punjab, with Faisalabad division topping the list.

At best, South Punjab’s share in sugarcane cultivation is no more than 45 percent combined, with only 14 out of 43 (operational) mills located in the region. In contrast, more than two-thirds of mills continue to be located in the central Punjab region, with Pothwari-districts share near nil. It appears that the fear-mongering raised on sugarcane crop taking over South Punjab region gained traction last year, when courts quashed the petition of three major mills from central Punjab to shift to South Punjab Jhang region.

The case raised eyebrows in both media and academics, as it was rumoured that the mills belonged to the fallen angels of the then ruling family, who at the time were already facing intense criticism on Panama-JIT.

While it is correct that south Punjab had seen mushrooming as well as consolidation of few mills during the last decade, with the charge led primarily by the largest market player. However, that in no way is a bad thing. Mills in the region have recorded highest level of sucrose recovery in the province.

Not only does the market leading group has the highest efficiencies in the industry, it has also introduced the much-wanted concept of corporate farming in the area, with land under cultivation of over 12,140 hectares on its own books alone; in addition to crop procured by small farmers and tenants in the region.