India's soyameal exports could fall 28.6% in the marketing year that begins in October 2019, as a surge in domestic prices will make overseas shipments uncompetitive, leading industry analyst Thomas Mielke said on Thursday.
Lower exports from India, Asia's leading supplier of soyameal, a key animal feed extracted from soyabean, could encourage rival South American suppliers to boost their shipments to the region. The country's soyameal exports are likely to fall to 1.5 million tonnes in the new marketing year from 2.1 million tonnes in 2018/19, Mielke, editor of the Oil World, the Hamburg, Germany-based newsletter said at the Globoil India conference.
Soyabean prices in India have risen 11% in the last five weeks to the highest in 3-1/2 years, as heavy rains in Madhya Pradesh, India's top soyabean producing state, have hit the crop.
As a result, India's soyabean production could fall to 9.5 million tonnes in 2019/20, down nearly 10% from a year earlier, Mielke said. A sharp rise in local soyabean prices would drag down exports from India, he said.
Mielke also said that India's soyameal exports are likely to fall depending on soyabean production remaining normal in south America, where weather conditions look good. Traders quote India's soyameal prices for November-December delivery at $465 per tonne on free-on-board basis, higher than nearly $310 a tonne for the supplies from Argentina.