Despite a slower start to soybean planting this year in Brazil, the country's 2019/20 corn crop, most of which is planted after the soy harvest, is expected to surpass the 100 million-tonne mark for the first time. According to the average estimate of nine forecasters, Brazil's corn crop in the season kicking off this month is likely to yield 102.3 million tonnes, a 2.3% increase from the government's estimate for the prior harvest, when farmers collected 99.98 million tonnes of corn.
A 3.4% expansion of the planted area will drive up production of corn in Brazil, the world's second-largest exporter of the cereal after the United States, according to the analysts.
The area expansion is supported by a favorable exchange rate and higher prices for corn in Chicago, which between May and July reflected uncertainty about the US corn output due to weather issues, according to Victor Ikeda, senior analyst at Dutch bank Rabobank, which has a strong agricultural operation in Brazil.
Despite the prospects for another bumper corn crop, Brazilian farmers are facing dry conditions early in the season, a situation interfering with early soy plantings which may also impact seeding for the second crop, the main one for corn.
Brazil's second corn, harvested after soy is collected from the fields, represents about 73% of the output and makes the country a big competitor to United States corn in global markets.
"The second corn should be sown in the Center-West of Brazil by March 5 to avoid major risks associated with low rainfall in the development phase," said Matheus Pereira, a director at agribusiness consultancy Arc Mercosul.
As such, he said it would not be advisable to plant soybeans after November 15 because then farmers would risk planting second corn outside of the ideal window.