Today, the nuclear world is in tumult, much against expectations that as follow-up of various treaties and protocols the nuclear jinni would be back in the bottle. But that doesn't seem to be happening. The nuclear jinni is out in the air, showcasing its unique power to destroy the world. This has happened because the two principal nuclear weapon states, the US and Russia, who seem to be returning to the nuclear arms race, and with more destructive weapons. And as they take that route of competition and confrontation, the rest of the world tends to lose its cool. What is in the offing is colossal breakdown of arms control set in place by US President Reagan and his then Soviet Union counterpart Mikhail Gorbachev in 1987 under the rubric of Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. Of late, there were reports that both the US and Russia were contemplating modernizing their nuclear arsenals. While the US was focused on improving size, delivery and target-ability of its weapons, Russia was working on the reach of its nuclear-tipped intermediate and long-range missiles. What is particularly frightening is its recently tested nuclear-capable hypersonic missile. But it was the INF Treaty that stood in the way. They have now walked out of this inhibiting dictate amid reports of potential deployment of new American missiles in Europe. Not only has this unsavoury development encouraged Russia to speak about 'military retaliatory steps', this has also helped the US challenge China's intermediate-range conventional force arsenal in an effective manner. Seemingly, in the wake of demise of the INF Treaty, the world has arrived at the threshold of a new spell of Cold War. And this could put the world "much closer" to a nuclear war. In other words, the collapse of the INF Treaty has brought mankind closer to the brink.
If both Washington and Moscow found the INF Treaty obsolete and an impediment to realising their latest nuclear-based strategic planning, the rest of the world does not. Thanks to the INF Treaty, the Nato countries are comfortable with its compliance over the last three decades. They would not like to host more lethal missiles the US would like to put on ground as response to Russia's Novator 9M729 ground-launched cruise missile, which is said to have broken INF Treaty's back.
As to how the nuclear-hinged Cold War would play out there are a variety of opinions and reactions. To the non-nuclear-weapon countries the end of the INF Treaty is a blow to the stability it generated in Europe. But some draw support from it for their nuclear ambitions. Iran's launching of a new cruise missile with a range of 1300km last week is a case in point. Iran says its missile tests are not in violation of the 2015 nuclear deal with world powers, an explanation rejected by the US. There is an element of defiance to the Iranian position; it activated the missile programme in the wake of US withdrawal from that deal and imposition of stiff economic anti-Iran sanctions. The demise of the INF Treaty could jeopardize another critical nuclear arms control tool or agreement - the New START.
However, if the US and Russia have upped the ante of nuclear apocalypse, the other nuclear-weapon states have not, and China is one of them. China has once again called upon the countries that have not joined the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) to become members "as soon as possible". Unless that happens, admission to the Nuclear Suppliers Group is not possible, and this applies to India also. Equally untenable is the belief that nuclear deterrence acts as an antidote to nuclear holocaust. The proponents of this argument should also know that there is also something called human error. If the humanity is to survive the only option is to cork the nuclear jinni bottle up.