US yields rise on Wall street gains, Brexit optimism

14 Nov, 2018

NEW YORK: US benchmark 10-year Treasury yields rallied from two-week lows on Wednesday, bolstered by gains on Wall Street and continued optimism about Britain's exit from the European Union.

Yields on other maturities also rose, with a little help from in-line US core inflation data for October. That should keep the Federal Reserve firmly on track to raise interest rates next month and a few more times in 2019.

On Wednesday, US stocks traded higher, further moving away from Monday's steep losses, as a rebound in oil prices lifted energy stocks.

"To me, it's equities turning higher as well as positive momentum on Brexit that are giving some room for Treasury yields to rise," said Subadra Rajappa, head of US rates strategy at Societe Generale in New York.

A draft Bexit deal was struck on Tuesday after months of negotiations with the EU, but British Prime Minister Theresa May must get the agreement approved by parliament before leaving the bloc on March 29, 2019.

In morning trading, benchmark 10-year note yields rose to 3.154 percent, from 3.145 percent late on Tuesday. Ten-year yields earlier fell to a two-week low of 3.132 percent.

US 30-year yields climbed to 3.385 percent compared with Tuesday's 3.367 percent.

On the short end of the curve, US two-year yields were at 2.895 percent, unchanged from Tuesday.

Yields also got a modest boost from data showing the US consumer price index increased by 0.3 percent last month after edging up 0.1 percent in September. October's rise was the most in nine months amid gains in the cost of gasoline and rents.

Excluding the volatile food and energy components, CPI climbed 0.2 percent. The so-called core CPI had gained 0.1 percent for two straight months.

Andrew Hunter, US economist at Capital Economics in London, said the rebound in headline CPI was mostly driven by a rise in gasoline prices, which will be more than reversed over the next couple of months with the decline in oil prices.

"The rest of the report supports our view that underlying inflation is unlikely to rise much further from here," he added.

That said, Hunter noted that the Fed will still likely continue hiking interest rates once a quarter in the near term, with the next move coming in December.

"But with little sign that a more marked acceleration in inflation lies ahead, Fed officials won't hesitate to back away from further tightening if economic growth slows," he said.

Copyright Reuters, 2018
 

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