Consultancy Strategie Grains on Thursday lowered its outlook for this year's soft wheat and maize harvests in the European Union due to the impact of dry and hot weather. Traders and analysts have been scaling back harvest estimates in Europe to reflect weather stress, with concerns focused on maize (corn), which is less developed than wheat or barley and going through the crucial pollination stage.
The soft wheat harvest, which is under way in the 28-country EU, was put at 140.9 million tonnes, 0.7 million tonnes less than forecast last month and 6 percent below a 2014 crop of 149.3 million, Strategie Grains said in a report. It had already reduced its soft wheat crop estimate by 1.1 million tonnes last month.
"Yields are expected to fall short of the high expectations that existed just several weeks ago, due to the dry, hot conditions at the end of wheat's growth cycle in many countries," it said. It made a combined 1.6-million-tonne cut to soft wheat production in Germany, France, Spain, Poland and the Benelux countries to reflect reduced yields, while trimming the Danish and Italian crops due to lower area estimates.
These cuts were partly offset by a combined 0.5-million-tonne upward revision for Lithuania and Sweden due to area increases, and a 0.5-million-tonne increase for Romania and Hungary because of higher yield projections. Strategie Grains reduced its forecast for the EU grain maize crop to 66.7 million tonnes, down 700,000 tonnes from its June outlook and 12 percent below 2014 production of 75.7 million, and warned crops could suffer more without rain relief.
Expected output in Spain, France, Italy, Poland, Hungary and Austria was cut by a total of 0.8 million tonnes in view of reduced yields, partially offset by a yield-based upward revision in Bulgaria and an area-related increase in Portugal. It left unchanged its forecast for the EU's total barley crop at 57.8 million tonnes, a 4 percent fall from last year. A 400,000-tonne cut to expected production of spring barley, which like maize has been particularly exposed to dry, hot conditions, was counterbalanced by an equally sized increase to the winter barley crop. In country terms, cuts to barley crops in Germany, Spain, Finland, Sweden, Poland and the Czech Republic were broadly offset by increases in France, Ireland and Denmark, it said.