The International Grains Council on Thursday cut its forecast for global wheat production in 2015/16 but raised its outlook for the corn (maize) crop. The IGC, in a monthly update, put global wheat production for 2015/16 (July to June) at 711 million tonnes, down from a previous forecast of 715 million and below the prior season's 721 million.
The lower 2015/16 wheat crop forecast was driven partly by downward revisions for India (89 million from 91 million), Australia (25.5 million from 27 million) and the European Union (148.8 million from 150 million). Ukraine's 2015/16 wheat crop forecast was raised to 22 million tonnes from 21 million although it remained below the prior season's 24.1 million.
Global corn production in 2015/16 was raised to 963 million tonnes from a previous forecast of 961 million but remained well below the prior season's record 999 million tonnes. "Expectations for world 2015/16 total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production remained mostly favourable," the IGC said. "While the harvest forecast is trimmed slightly from before, overall supply is expected to fall only fractionally year-on-year, bolstered by large opening stocks." Corn consumption in 2015/16 was forecast to rise to 976 million tonnes from the prior season's 974 million with stocks at the end of the season put at 188 million, down from 201 million a year earlier.
"This would represent the first contraction for maize (corn) in five years and would still leave stocks at comfortable levels," the IGC said. Wheat consumption in 2015/16 was forecast to rise to 713 million tonnes from the prior season's 710 million with stocks at the end of the season seen falling marginally to 196 million tonnes from 198 million.