Aussie, NZ dollars hold recent hefty gains on USD, euro

WELLINGTON/SYDNEY: The Australian and New Zealand dollars held most of their recent hefty gains on the US dollar and eur
04 Jan, 2012

The Aussie, last at $1.0345, took a breather in Asia, having rallied more than one percent this week to a two-month summit around $1.0387.

Traders cited profit taking on the yen cross, which saw the Aussie retreat to as low as 79.13 yen from a one-month peak of 79.70. This, in turn, knocked a third of a cent off the Aussie from late New York level.

"It's been an impressive rally," said David Scutt, a trader at Arab Bank Australia.

"Today there is some gentle profit taking ... It had a four cent move over the past three weeks and is probably due for a little bit of correction," he said. Scutt envisaged a retreat to A$1.0200 at the most.

Immediate support for the Aussie is seen at around $1.0285, with key resistance at $1.0416, the 200 DMA. The Aussie has not broken the 200-day DMA since Oct 31.

Should the Aussie rise above $1.0416, it could spike to around the $1.0750 mark, which has provided heavy resistance twice in the past few months, Scutt added.

The New Zealand dollar paused at $0.7886, after climbing as far as $0.7908, its highest since Nov. 14.

The kiwi, one of the best performers overnight along with the Aussie, was seen running into technical resistance with the 100 DMA at $0.7904, ahead of $0.7933, the 38.2 percent Fibo retracement of the Aug-Nov decline.

Risk assets got off to a strong start in 2012 after a rise in the US manufacturing sector and better-than-expected PMI reading in China held out hope the global outlook may not be in as bad a shape as feared.

The euro, however, remained under pressure against the Antipodeans. It was at A$1.2597, just above an all-time trough of A$1.2560 struck on Tuesday.

It has shed more than two cents in just one week, with technicals pointing to further losses, given the break of major support in the A$1.2900/1.3000 zone.

A trader said the pair is getting closer to a A$1.2500 target.

The single currency was at NZ$1.6523, holding near a 15-week low around NZ$1.6492.

Improving risk sentiment also helped the Antipodeans hold their ground against the safe-haven Swissy, with the Aussie at 0.9652 francs, near an 11-month high of 0.9692 struck offshore. The kiwi hovered around 0.7355, just under a 3-month peak of 0.7374 francs.

The kiwi was resilient to lower milk prices at the latest auction, with prices 0.7 percent lower in a second straight auction. Dairy is New Zealand's largest export and account for about a quarter of export earnings.

NZ government bonds gained, with yields about 2 bps lower across the curve. The 10-year yield at 3.83 percent was off an all-time low of 3.76 percent struck last month.

Australian bond futures nudged higher, with the 3-year contract up 0.02 points at 96.790, while the 10-year contract added 0.05 points to 96.160.

Next focal point for markets will be debt auctions by Germany and Portugal due later on Wednesday.

Copyright Reuters, 2011

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