Wheat on track for third weekly drop on supply pressure

15 Mar, 2024

SINGAPORE: Chicago wheat futures were largely flat on Friday, with the market on track for a third weekly decline on pressure from Chinese buyers cancelling shipments amid plentiful global supplies.

Corn firmed, while soybeans slid.

“Abundant supplies have contributed to the drop in prices, with mainland China cancelling or postponing wheat imports from Australia and the US in March because of falling prices,” according to a report from BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions.

The most-active wheat contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) was unmoved at $5.32-1/4 a bushel, as of 0223 GMT, corn added 0.3% to $4.35 a bushel and soybeans shed 0.1% to $11.94-1/2 a bushel.

For the week, wheat is down 1%, having lost 6.5% in three weeks, corn is down 1.1%, while soybeans have added nearly 1%.

Chinese wheat importers have cancelled or postponed about one million metric tons of Australian wheat cargoes as growing world stockpiles drag prices lower.

This news came after the US government reported cancellation of more than 500,000 metric tons of US wheat exports last week to China.

Chinese buyers cancel or postpone Australian wheat buys amid global oversupply

Cancellation of shipments by China, the world’s No. 1 wheat buyer, are heightening concerns among exporters over rising world surplus.

Russia’s IKAR agricultural consultancy said it expects Russia’s 2024/25 grain crop to be 147 million metric tons, of which 93 million tons would be wheat, Russian news agency Interfax reported on Thursday.

The figures are up from 2023/24 when the grain harvest was forecast at 144 million metric tons in 2023/24, of which 91.6 million tons will be wheat.

The International Grains Council on Thursday forecast a record global grain crop in the 2024/25 season, reinforcing concerns about a global glut.

The inter-governmental body, issuing its first full set of supply and demand projections for the 2024/25 season, saw global grains production rising to a record 2.332 billion metric tons from the prior season’s 2.304 billion.

The percentage of Argentine soybean plantings with optimal-to-excellent soil moisture grew to 77% in the last week, boosted by recent rains, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said on Thursday.

Commodity funds were net buyers of CBOT soybean and soymeal futures contracts on Thursday, and net sellers of corn, wheat and soyoil contracts, traders said.

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