EDITORIAL: Recent years have seen India’s relations with most of its neighbours going through considerable strain. While the dire state of its relations with Pakistan has long frustrated attempts to foster a climate of cooperation in South Asia, its relationship with China has fared no better, with skirmishes breaking out between the two countries’ militaries in 2020-21. Its dealings with much smaller neighbours like Nepal and Sri Lanka have seen their share of rancour as well. The latest development in this regard now sees a nosedive in its relationship with the Maldives.
The archipelago nation told India on January 14 to withdraw the nearly 90 troops the country has stationed in the Maldives by March 15. This development, notably, came a day after the Maldives President Mohamed Muizzu returned from a trip to China where he signed a number of deals covering a diverse set of areas.
It should also be noted that President Muizzu was elected to power back in September riding on an “India Out” political campaign, with the eviction of Indian forces from the Maldives being one of the major promises he made during the run-up to the polls. His pro-China leanings and the country’s shift into the Chinese orbit has been quite obvious since then.
The Maldives, despite its small population and area, holds strategic importance in the Indian Ocean region, with global east-west shipping lanes crisscrossing the nation’s chain of 1,192 islands. Its strategic importance, therefore, has seen major powers taking measures to seek increasing influence in the India-Pacific. Given this background, President Muizzu’s clear anti-India stance ever since he assumed power has complicated regional dynamics for its much larger neighbour.
India has long considered Maldives to be within its sphere of influence, something which the island nation now wants to break free of. This was made clear in some very pointed comments made by the Maldives president, who stated that “we may be small, but that doesn’t give you the licence to bully us” while he also made it clear that his country’s “territorial integrity policy is one that China respects”.
Recent years have seen India and China compete for influence in the Maldives, making substantial investments in upgrading its infrastructure and providing loans to support its development. While competition for regional influence between India and China has been a long-running one, what has complicated matters for the former is the almost bullying attitude of the Indian right wing with respect to smaller neighbours. This has been reflected in recent events with a social media row playing its role in further souring an already weakening relationship.
Earlier in the month, a row erupted between the two countries after Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited the overwhelmingly Muslim-majority Indian islands of Lakshadweep to promote tourism. The visit was framed by his supporters as a means to draw tourism away from Maldives, a country highly reliant on tourism.
This was met with indignation by some in the archipelago nation with three Maldivian ministers ending up being suspended after making derogatory comments about PM Modi on social media. The following days saw a social media storm in India with rabid right wing accounts as well as Indian celebrities calling for a boycott of Maldives, and the country’s high commissioner being hauled up by New Delhi.
Despite Maldives being highly reliant on tourists from India, as well as depending on that country for its healthcare and infrastructure needs, President Muizzu’s government appears resolute in breaking free from Indian hegemony.
What kind of geostrategic landscape takes shape in the region as a result of Maldives’ attempts to restructure and broaden its foreign policy remains uncertain. India’s ambitions to widen its influence in the region, however, have clearly run into obstacles.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2024