CANBERRA: Chicago wheat futures fell on Friday and headed for their biggest weekly fall since September after lower-than-expected US export sales underlined weak demand and competition from cheap Russian grain.
Soyabeans and corn also dipped, but both were set for weekly gains despite a sharp decline for soyabeans on Thursday after forecasts for rain in top exporter Brazil eased supply concerns. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported export sales of US 2023/24 wheat in the week to Nov. 9 at 176,300 metric tons, below trade expectations for 250,000-500,000 tons.
Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) December wheat futures were down 0.4% at $5.51-1/4 a bushel by 0705 GMT and down 4.2% for the week. Prices were near September’s three-year low of $5.40 as Russia, wrapping up a second consecutive huge harvest, continues to export huge amounts of cheap grain.
“There’s still plenty of cheap Black Sea grain hitting markets and keeping a lid on prices,” said Rod Baker at Australian Crop Forecasters. But he said relatively low harvests in Argentina and Australia meant and Asian importers would have to look elsewhere for supply in the coming months.
“Inelastic demand will have to source elsewhere. I still think we need to see US exports pick up to see a lift in prices,” he said. The International Grains Council raised its forecast for 2023/24 global wheat production by 2 million metric tons to 787 million tons.
Strategie Grains forecast a lower European Union soft wheat area for next year’s harvest, brokerage StoneX lowered its forecast for Brazil’s 2023/24 wheat harvest and the Buenos Aires grains exchange cut its projection for Argentina’s wheat crop.
CBOT soyabeans fell 0.4% to $13.54-3/4 a bushel but were still around 0.5% higher this week. Corn slipped 0.4% to $4.73 a bushel but were 1.9% up from last Friday’s close. The USDA reported weekly US export sales last week of more than 3.9 million metric tons, the highest combined crop year sales since 2012, after a surge in Chinese buying.
Given poor figures earlier in the year, the high figure only lifted the sales pace closer to the normal range. A recent rise in domestic and foreign demand for US beans helped lift CBOT futures to $13.99 a bushel on Wednesday, the highest since Aug. 30. But prices plunged on Thursday on expectations of crop-boosting rain in major producers Brazil and Argentina.
The Buenos Aires grains exchange said it now expects more land to be planted with soyabeans and less to be planted with corn due to late rainfall.
Commodity funds were net sellers of Chicago soyabeans, soyameal, soyaoil and wheat futures contracts on Thursday but net buyers of corn, traders said.
In corn, the International Grains Council raised its forecast for 2023/24 global output by 4 million metric tons to 1.223 billion tons, lifting its estimate for the US harvest to 387 million tons. Corn prices are hovering near three-year lows amid plentiful supply.