ISLAMABAD: The IRSA Advisory Committee (IAC) has projected 15 percent water shortage of Punjab and Sindh during Rabi season due to less availability of water.
The IAC meeting was held on Monday to approve the Rabi 2023-24 anticipated Water Availability Criteria from October 1, 2023 to March 31, 2024 under the chairmanship of Chairman IRSA/Member IRSA.
The IAC reviewed the Kharif 2023 system operation and observed that the actual rim station inflows of 95.22 MAF till 30th September were 3% more than forecasted volume of 92.88 MAF and 6% less with respect to 10-year average of 101.55 MAF.
Rabi season: Irsa predicts over 50pc water shortage
The overall provincial canal withdrawals were 15% short with respect to shares. Punjab and Sindh received 14% short supplies against anticipation of 15%, while Kyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan full indented supplies.
The actual system losses were 14.15 MAF as compared to anticipation of 13.53 MAF. Downstream Kotri releases remained 13.79 MAF.
IAC was informed that due to better inflows and efficient regulation of available supplies, the storage volume available for transfer to Rabi 2023-24 was 11.579 MAF, which was 15% more than 10-year average and 19% more than last year.
The IAC discussed the recommendations of IRSA Technical Committee (ITC) meeting held on September 25, 2023 and approved the likely Anticipated Water Availability at the four rim stations of 21.92 MAF for Rabi 2023-24 which was about 8% more than previous year and about 1% less than 10-year average.
The IAC was informed that the forecast and anticipated system operation was conducted by utilizing the Water Apportionment Accord (WAA)-Tool, developed jointly by MoWR, IRSA, PIDs, Wapda under technical and financial assistance from the Australian government.
The breakup of the anticipated total availability including Eastern Rivers component is as below:
The likely availability at the canal heads of 31.66 MAF was about 8% higher than last year’s actual availability of 29.39 MAF and 10-year average of 29.42 MAF.
The Basin-wise shortage for Rabi 2023-24 was approved as 15%.
The IAC also approved the anticipated Indus and JC Zones losses as 8% and 0%, respectively, subject to the condition that they would be revisited during mid-seasonal review in comparison with actual losses and subsequently updated, if required.
However PID Punjab & Member IRSA Punjab were of the view to adopt a rational figure of 5% losses for Indus Zone.
Additionally, the IAC approved Chashma Barrage Closure as requested by the Wapda for a period of 20 days between the tentative dates from 26 December, 2023 to 14 January, 2024 synchronised with Canal Closure schedules of Punjab and Sindh canals.
During the Closure, Chashma Reservoir would be constrained between levels 638.15 ft to 640.00 ft with outflow restrictions between 15,000 cfs to 30,000 cfs.
The Wapda’s request to carryout O&M works at Jari outlet of Mangla Reservoir shall be considered after provincial canal closures during mid-term review of the water situation.
The Wapda imparted detailed briefing to the august forum regarding Tunnel 5 HPP of Tarbela and informed that they were trying their best to complete the ongoing works during the approved closure period of 33 months.
The Wapda representatives assured that IRSA’s irrigation demands placed on Tarbela would be fulfilled during Rabi 2023-24 and that they would make all out efforts to operationalise Tunnel 4 Low Level Outlet (LLO), possibly ending March 2024. In this regard, the Wapda shall submit a comprehensive report within one week, after discussions with the Consultants and the Contractor of T5 HPP, so as to firm-up the dates of T4 LLO operationalisation.
The meeting was participated by the IRSA Members; Engineering Advisor, MoWR; Member (Water), Wapda; technical Advisors of Wapda; senior representatives of Tarbela, Mangla and Chashma Reservoirs and T5 HPP, senior representatives of Provincial Irrigation Departments (PIDs) and Director (Opr)/Secretary IRSA along with senior technical personnel of IRSA.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2023